The Tourists Aren’t Coming. Now What?

On a Saturday afternoon in late June, a local couple wandered into a downtown Napa tasting room. No waitlist. No crowds. Just the easy quiet of an unhurried afternoon and plenty of open seats at the bar. The staff welcomed them with a smile—grateful, not frantic. A pause in what used to be a nonstop flow of visitors.

It wasn’t an off day. It’s the new normal.

Across Napa and Sonoma, tourism is softening. Tasting rooms are closing. Wineries are consolidating. And even some of the region’s best-known names are starting to feel the heat. Francis Ford Coppola Winery recently laid off 20 employees. Darioush said goodbye to its longtime president. Newton Vineyard, Duckhorn, and Brian Arden have all recently shuttered tasting rooms.

It’s not a collapse. But it is a shift. And it’s forcing a question that might make some hospitality marketers twitch:

For years, the strategy was simple: attract visitors, wow them with the wine and scenery, and get them to join the club. But the ROI on this playbook is shrinking fast. Ad spend is up. Click-through rates are down. The digital race for DTC sales is oversaturated and, frankly, exhausting.

"Everyone has wine to sell," says Sarah Flick, a Napa-based social media and brand strategist. "What makes you stand out isn't your product. It's the experience you wrap around it. The partnerships, the emotional resonance, the magic of authenticity."

Ashes & Diamonds, she points out, built a hotel-collaboration model that turns a wine club into something closer to a lifestyle membership. Del Fino Farms up in Apple Hill offers a wine club that can be used at their apple stand, music nights, or on curated farm experiences. In other words: they’re not just selling wine. They’re selling an experience and belonging.

Flick believes the smartest brands right now are the ones that are rethinking influence, connection, and community. "It’s easy to chase short-term wins on social media—the viral moment, the one-off influencer post," she says. "But the real value comes from longer-term, strategic relationships. Local or regional collaborations. Offers that speak directly to your people."

Her advice: Think like a local brand with national reach. And start by building for the neighbors first.

Carneros Resort, for example, has been slowly rewriting its narrative for the past few years. Once positioned primarily as a luxury destination for out-of-towners is now reintroducing itself to locals. Their Thursday night Vinyl + Wine events aren’t just for guests and FARM got a warm, patio-forward redesign meant to welcome the community. Even their wellness programming now includes bookable classes for locals, not just spa guests.

"We want to be seen not just as a leisure destination, but as a local staple," says Ed Costa, Managing Director at Carneros Resort. "Our community events have helped break down any sense of exclusivity, creating a more welcoming, approachable environment."

Costa says they're seeing a consistent pickup in regional visitors and repeat guests, and it’s reshaping how they think about programming. "People want experiences that feel meaningful and memorable," he says. "That means personalization and sustainability,” and building something that goes beyond luxury for luxury’s sake.

And yet, the majority of wineries and hospitality brands are still stuck in the old model: chasing faraway guests while ignoring the ones down the road. The irony? Locals are more than just backup revenue during the slow season. They’re your best ambassadors. They come back. They bring friends. They tag you, talk about you, and build long-term loyalty in a way one-time tourists rarely do.

"When money gets tight, community is everything," Flick says. "We know that money spent locally gets recirculated two to four times more than money spent at non-local businesses. Local spending isn’t charity. It’s the most economically viable thing you can do."

It means becoming more than what you were intended. A winery becomes a movie night. A tasting room becomes a trivia den. A vintage shop becomes a Sunday afternoon music lounge.

Some of the most successful pivots we’ve seen are deceptively simple:

You don’t need a million followers or a full-time marketing team to pull this off. You need a point of view, a pulse on what your community actually wants, and the willingness to double down on the locals that actually live here.